Invest in ETHUSD before making resistance check

After a recent slide, the ETHUSD pair is trying to find its footing, but the bounce looks hesitant and is capped by key resistance levels within a broader medium-term downtrend. Such price dynamics reflect a tug-of-war—buyers are looking to claw back some of November's losses, while sellers are defending the lower structure that's been in place since mid-month.

The technical setup shows why this rebound is on thin ice. The Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) has already entered overbought territory—a warning sign when the bigger trend is bearish. A reversal and a test of nearby support may be in play as a result. Concurrently, the Chaikin Oscillator is starting to flatline—it's still positive, yet buying momentum is clearly fading. This makes it unlikely that investors will see a clean break above the $3,120 resistance anytime soon.

On the other hand, the fundamental picture is mixed. The good news is that traders are almost certain (85%) the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its December meeting, and quantitative tightening (QT) nearing its end may bolster risk assets, such as cryptos. This shift helps to sustain institutional interest in the pair. However, the market is still volatile, big players are taking profits, and the $3,120 level proves to be a tough hill to climb.

Despite near-term headwinds, the pieces for a broader trend reversal are falling into place. The expected liquidity boost following the end of QT—historically a tailwind for altcoins—along with the upcoming Fusaka network upgrade on December 3, which tackles blob data scalability, are setting the stage for potential growth. Major players have been accumulating ETH in the $2,800–$2,830 zone, thus building a solid support. The price will probably hang around there to build up steam before having another go at $3,120. If it can finally break through, the next logical target will be $3,280.

Consider the trading strategy outlined below:

Wait for a correction to $2,830 and then buy ETHUSD. Take profit 1: $3,120. Take profit 2: $3,280. Stop loss: $2,700.

This forecast is valid between November 27 and December 4, 2025.