EURUSD eyes another test of resistance after pullback

The EURUSD market is currently looking a bit shaky. After its recent bounce, the buying pressure seems to be drying up. The pair opened today at 1.15833, dipped into the red to 1.15768, and has since clawed its way back to where it started. This wigwag dynamic shows a market that's unsure of its next move, with the price flirting with another leg down.

Technically, the pair looks like it needs a breather, as its November 5 rally is tired. The Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) is beginning to stall out, with the fast line (%K at 71) losing steam against the slower one (%D at 62)—a classic sign that buying momentum is fading. Concurrently, the Chaikin Indicator isn't giving a strong confirmation. Even though it's positive, the lack of a real surge in volume makes it hard to believe that a sustained uptrend is truly taking hold. Put together, these signals point to a near-term pause. Investors may see the pair move sideways or even dip a little. The key to watch is the support level. If it holds, this cooldown period will be exactly what's needed to build up energy for the next hike.

Fundamentally, the euro has some underlying strength. Despite soft spots in the German chemical industry, the European Central Bank (ECB) sees better-than-expected economic growth in the third quarter (Q3). Plus, a delayed environmental policy (ETS2) is now taking some pressure off consumer prices, which could provide backing for the single currency in the medium term.

On the other side of the pair, the US dollar is feeling the heat from a weak labor market. A poor ADP jobs report has traders betting heavily (now a 68% chance) on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. Even with the government shutdown nearing its end—which would normally offer some support—the greenback's underlying trend remains bearish.

For trading, consider the plan down below:

Buy EURUSD in the range of 1.15535–1.15720. Take profit: 1.16300. Stop loss: 1.15200.

This forecast is relevant from November 12 till November 19, 2025.