EURUSD bounces back from yesterday's dip after soft US print

EURUSD is staging a comeback, resuming its upward trajectory after a corrective pullback. The pair climbed during today's session, reclaiming some of yesterday's losses, as buyers attempted to gain a foothold above 1.19170. This rally builds on the broader recovery wave that began in early February near 1.17650, suggesting an effort to revive the primary uptrend.

Technically, the setup leans constructive. The price is firmly anchored above the Bollinger Band midline at 1.17970, reinforcing a bullish bias. With channel width pointing to contained volatility, the path is clear for a controlled continuation higher.

Momentum indicators paint a cautiously optimistic picture. The Stochastic Oscillator (%K=64, %D=41) has triggered a bullish crossover, affirming building upward pressure. Although it is still in the red and shy of overbought extremes above 80, there is room to run, provided that momentum holds. 

Elsewhere, the Chaikin Oscillator is trending higher, yet it stays in negative territory. Such a bullish inflection suggests selling exhaustion, framing yesterday's drop as a technical pause rather than a bearish reversal.

Fundamentally, the dollar remains on the defensive. December's shockingly weak US retail sales data—flat at 0.0% versus a forecasted 0.4% gain—has turbocharged bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary easing, thus sending the greenback into a tailspin. Anemic consumer spending is also fanning the flames of new rate-cut expectations.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank's report cites deflationary spillovers from US tariffs—a factor that could justify more ECB easing. At the end of the day, the market is still focused on America's economic softness. This comparative assessment underpins the euro's resilience.

All eyes are now on Wednesday's US employment data, which are poised to inject fresh volatility. Another weak print could be the final catalyst for the Fed, hammering the dollar and sending EURUSD into a new rally.

The following plan may come into play for your trading:

Buy the EURUSD pair at current levels to resume the uptrend. Place Take profit at 1.20200. Set Stop loss at 1.17800.

This forecast holds true from February 11 till February 18, 2026.