Selling EURUSD down to 1.1400

March 4, 2026, brings a bearish bias to EURUSD, with the dollar firmly stepping into its safe-haven role as geopolitical tensions boil over. The Middle East escalation—and the growing threat to vital oil and gas routes—has capital flooding into the greenback, i.e., the world's go-to liquidity hub. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy lifeline, has suddenly come to the forefront, and Europe, which is heavily reliant on fuel imports, feels every tremor. With its supply artery being severely threatened, the single currency is taking a far harder hit than its US counterpart.

Meanwhile, central banks are pulling up in opposite directions. The Federal Reserve remains locked in hawkish mode, laser-focused on inflation fueled by soaring oil prices and a bloated budget deficit. Interest rates stay high, bond yields follow suit, and the dollar's appeal to income-hungry investors only grows. Along the way, the regulator is in no hurry to lower borrowing costs.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The eurozone economy, Germany in particular, is sputtering. If officials keep rates too high, a deep recession will likely loom. Nevertheless, the regulatory tone has softened, with whispers of a pause or even monetary easing creeping in, despite inflation still very much in play. Such a policy divergence is a powerful drag on the euro.

GDP growth tells a similar story. The US economy is holding up better, insulated by its status as a net energy exporter. Europe, by contrast, is vulnerable to every fuel shock. This structural gap only widens the divide between the two regions, and the greenback continues to gain an edge. 

Therefore, the verdict is in for the pair. Pressure is mounting right now, and the path ahead points lower—toward 1.1500 and possibly even beyond.

The ultimate recommendation is to sell EURUSD. Lock in profits at 1.1400. Place Stop Loss at 1.1850.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.