EURUSD caught in limbo ahead of central bank decisions

The euro is currently clawing its way back. On March 18, 2026, this comeback is taking shape as EURUSD stages a technical rebound from the local low of 1.14099 hit just five days ago—right when Middle East tensions boiled over and dollar safe-haven hunger sent the greenback surging.

From a technical perspective, all pieces are falling into place. The Stochastic Oscillator (%K at 40, %D at 32) is hanging out in neutral territory below the 50 midline. More importantly, a decisive upward crossover—%K slicing above %D—is a textbook sign that short-term traders tend to trust. In other words, momentum is tilting in favor of the single currency. 

Deeper down, the Chaikin Oscillator is still in the red, which is a lingering footprint of bearish dominance. Yet look closer: since March 16, the line has been steadily lifting off the floor. Selling pressure is bleeding out. Put these two indicators together—a bullish Stochastic crossover and a Chaikin reversal—and the setup suggests that the pair could grind higher toward the next major hurdle: resistance at 1.16250.

However, the real drama this week won't unfold on charts—it will play out on the broader stage. Central bank fireworks and geopolitical jitters will be the ones who are steering the ship. Today's main event is the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting: eyes are glued to the updated dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's tone. If the regulator leans hawkish and rhetoric follows suit, the dollar could catch a bid, triggering a wave of profit-taking that knocks EURUSD back on its heels. But the action doesn't stop there. On March 19, the spotlight shifts to Europe. The oil shock from the Middle East is stoking inflation fears, and markets have already been speculating on a new rate cut by year-end. If the European Central Bank (ECB) nods in that direction—signaling a willingness to fight soaring prices—the single currency could find its footing again.

For those looking to act, consider the trading plan down below:

Buy EURUSD in the 1.1450–1.1470 range. A temporary dip following the Fed's decision could offer a more attractive entry point than current levels. If the ECB shows its readiness to tackle accelerating inflation on March 19, the euro could catch a fresh bid. Place Take profit at 1.16250. Set Stop loss at 1.14000.

This forecast holds true from March 18 till March 25, 2026.