As of April 2, 2026, the euro is on the ropes, and the dollar is calling the shots. The EURUSD pair is stuck in a bearish trend, with the greenback drawing strength from two powerful sources: geopolitical turbulence and optimistic expectations for the American labor market.
Challenger Job Cuts. The forecast for March 2026 points to a hefty number of layoffs. But here is the twist: despite the pink slips, the underlying resilience of the US economy continues to stoke demand for the dollar as the ultimate safe haven.
Initial Jobless Claims. Today's consensus stands at 212,000 new filings. Last week's 210,000 print was right in line with predictions, yet it still managed to dip below the 2025 average—a quiet reminder that the job market remains surprisingly tight. As long as these numbers stay low, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has little reason to rush toward interest rate cuts in 2026, putting fresh wind in the greenback's sails. Meanwhile, a cooling US labor market (with only 69,000 new positions anticipated) paired with steady unemployment at 4.4% is keeping investors on edge, nudging them toward caution.
In short, the market has completely ruled out Fed monetary easing for 2026, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to raise borrowing costs at least twice. A widening yield gap is music to the dollar's ears. Add simmering Middle East tensions and sky-high oil prices to the mix, and the greenback's safe-haven appeal grows stronger while the energy-dependent eurozone economy is squeezed from all sides.
The short-term trend stays bearish, plain and simple. A decisive break below the March lows could open the door to targets at 1.1445 and 1.1410. More likely, we're looking at a modest slide or flat drift with a bearish lean. But keep an eye on jobless claims: if they fall below 212,000, the American currency will catch another gust of wind, pushing EURUSD down toward 1.1490.
The ultimate recommendation is to sell EURUSD from 1.1575. Lock in profits at 1.1490. Place Stop Loss at 1.1630.
Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow entering a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
