Selling EURUSD down to 1.15000

Let’s take a look at the fundamental analysis of the EURUSD pair, based on the current macroeconomic and geopolitical situation.

The American economy remains more dynamic and resilient than its European counterpart. According to forecasts, US GDP will increase by 2.4% in 2026. The region, by contrast, is now lagging behind, showing a very different picture. The European Commission and other analytical agencies predict that the bloc’s economic growth is likely to slow to 1.0% this year. First-quarter (Q1) results have already proven the point: EU GDP rose by a modest 0.1%. The annual figure was also unimpressive (0.8%)—the lowest reading in several quarters. US economic performance for the same period was far stronger.

As for inflation in America and Europe, it depends heavily on the current geopolitical landscape. But let’s compare the actual figures. The Consumer Price Index in the eurozone surged from 2.6% in March to 3.0% in April due to soaring energy costs driven by the Middle East conflict. The US CPI also sits high, but the rest of the equation looks completely different. The American economy copes with elevated inflation with less damage thanks to its well-developed domestic energy production, which reduces pressure on final prices. Given the current hostile environment, the European Central Bank (ECB) is thinking about raising interest rates as early as June, despite the region’s weak performance.

The monetary gap between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB reflects their diverging policy paths. The former held its borrowing costs steady at 3.75%, while the latter kept them significantly lower at 2.0%.

As noted, the US economy appears more resilient in terms of growth rates and long-term potential, thereby supporting the dollar and adding pressure to the pair.

The ultimate recommendation is to sell EURUSD at the current price, targeting 1.15000 within a month. For better risk management, place a Stop Loss order just above the resistance level, i.e., at 1.16700.