Go long on EURUSD on weak US jobs data

EURUSD is holding its breath, waiting for August's most anticipated data release. After last month's dismal report, which saw just 57,000 new jobs added, the market is bracing for a modest recovery in US employment.

Here's what traders are pricing in:

Nonfarm Payrolls. The consensus forecast is 88,000—a figure that, by historical standards, is barely a whisper. This is yet another sign that the American economy is losing steam.

Unemployment rate. It is expected to hold at 4.2%. Any surprise here will send shockwaves through the markets.

With the data still being under wraps, the pair's path splits cleanly in two.

Scenario 1: bullish for EURUSD (Payrolls ≤ 88K). If the print meets or misses forecasts—whether it is 80K, 88K, or even worse—the greenback could be in for a rough session. Such a figure would reinforce the narrative that the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates aggressively at its next meeting. Treasury yields would likely tumble, pulling the dollar index down with them. In this environment, the pair is poised to challenge the nearest resistance level at 1.1525 and potentially break through it.

Scenario 2: bearish for EURUSD (Payrolls > 120K). If the US economy defies the gloom with a blowout number, the Fed hawks will have fresh ammunition. Recession fears would quickly fade, and monetary easing expectations would be dialed back sharply. The dollar may stage a broad-based rally, putting significant pressure on the pair. In this case, the most probable outcome would be a pullback toward strong support at around 1.1500.

In the hours leading up to the release, EURUSD is likely to be locked in a tight pre‑news range. Major players are waiting for clarity before making moves. The underlying fundamental trend remains moderately bullish, supported by expectations of Fed easing down the road. However, trading just before the Nonfarm Payrolls publication is notoriously risky—volatility can spike, spreads may widen, and the market is about to play sharply in either direction.

The ultimate recommendation is to buy EURUSD after the report is released, assuming the labor market is weak (below 95K). Lock in profits at 1.15800. Place Stop Loss at 1.14860.

Calculate your open position so that a potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is limited to 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow you to enter a position of this size, it is better to skip the trade and wait for other market signals that meet low-risk criteria.