The GBPUSD pair is stuck in a tug-of-war right now, with buyers and sellers fighting it out near a key resistance level. This stalemate following the recent recovery creates conditions for a potential downside reversal.
Momentum indicators are currently flashing warning signs of an impending correction. Though not yet in overbought territory, the Stochastic Oscillator is creeping higher while prices are struggling—a classic divergence that often precedes a turn. A more unsettling signal comes from the Chaikin Oscillator, which has fallen off a cliff since its November 27 peak. This means funds are flowing out fast, and selling pressure is building up.
Price-wise, the pair can't seem to clearly break above the top of the Bollinger Bands at 1.32384, which is part of the core resistance. Such positioning confirms a gloomy outlook from the indicators. The key level to watch on the downside is today's low at 1.3219. If that gives way, traders could see a drop toward the middle Bollinger Band around 1.3130, where buyers will probably step in.
The pound got a temporary boost from the UK budget, which was tougher on spending than expected. This gave government bonds a lift and helped the sterling. But let's be real—policymakers have kicked major tax decisions down the road to 2029, so there are lingering concerns about whether this plan will actually work and affect the British economy. This may limit how much higher the pound can go.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is having its worst week since July as everyone bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates soon. However, with jobless claims just hitting a seven-month low, American GDP growth still looks pretty solid. That might be enough to stop the greenback's slide from getting out of hand.
Pay attention to the following strategy for your trading:
Sell GBPUSD at the current price. Take profit 1: 1.31300. Take profit 2: 1.30700. Stop loss: 1.32800.
This forecast is relevant between November 28 and December 5, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
