GBPUSD is poised to resume decline after short-term bullish momentum

The GBPUSD pair rose modestly during early trading on Friday. After reaching a local low of 1.31578, a technical rebound took place. Prices managed to climb to the 1.33000 resistance level before retreating to 1.32386 at the time of writing.

Bollinger Bands paint a clearly bearish picture. GBPUSD is now hovering below the 20-period simple moving average (SMA20) at 1.33258, sitting closer to the lower line at 1.31719. The width of the bands points to elevated volatility and hints at further downside.

The Chaikin Oscillator is stuck in the negative zone, reflecting sellers' dominance. That said, it has been slowly recovering from its lows since March 31, signaling that bearish momentum is getting weaker. Still, the zero line remains out of reach, and no imminent trend reversal should be expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator (%K=45, %D=34) reveals that the current rebound has limits. Its lines are swimming in neutral territory below the 50 threshold. %K crossed above %D on April 1, but this move has largely played out by now. So, the short-term upside potential based on this crossover appears limited.

Fundamentally, the pound is under significant pressure. The UK is no stranger to supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The energy crisis has intensified inflation concerns in the country, which, according to the Bank of England (BoE), have reached levels last seen in December 2023. However, the regulator is in no rush to tighten monetary policy, leaving its national currency without much-needed support.

US labor market statistics are due on Friday. If these data show deteriorating hiring conditions, market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this year will rise. This scenario would help GBPUSD claw back some of its losses—though any recovery would likely be partial and may trigger profit‑taking.

Pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Sell GBPUSD during a rebound toward 1.32600. Place Take profit at 1.31800. Set Stop loss at 1.33200.

The forecast remains relevant between April 3 and April 10, 2026.