GBPUSD at risk of uptrend breakdown and further decline due to US duties

The GBPUSD currency pair continues to decline on Friday, having lost 0.6% the previous day. The pound's weakness stems from increased uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and signs of inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Following the talks, Trump stated that trade tariffs could also be imposed on the UK if the two sides fail to reach an agreement. This has added pressure on the pound, especially as tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico are set to take effect next week.

Further pressure comes from strong U.S. macroeconomic data. The country's GDP for the fourth quarter grew by 2.4%, exceeding the forecast of 2.2%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders rose by 3.1%, though excluding the transportation sector, the figure remained unchanged. This points to an uneven recovery across sectors.

On Friday, the U.S. will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a key inflation measure for the Federal Reserve. Preliminary data for the quarter showed an acceleration to 2.7%, surpassing the forecast of 2.5%. This increases the likelihood of keeping high interest rates in the U.S. for a longer period of time, further supporting the dollar.

From a technical perspective, GBPUSD is forming an uptrend on the H6 timeframe. The wave structure suggests the development of the second upward corrective wave. However, the Moving Average of Oscillator (12, 26, 9) is rising in the negative zone, indicating a weakening upward momentum and a potential breakdown of the lower channel boundary. If the price exits the channel downward, the formation of a third impulse downward wave could begin.

Short-Term Outlook:

Sell GBPUSD with a target of 1,2300.

Partial profit-taking near 1,2490.

Stop-loss level: 1,2760.

The bearish trend is short-term, so a trading volume should not exceed 2% of your balance.