Gold selloff targets $4,150 as buying power fades away

Gold's brief, two-day recovery ran out of steam on March 26, with prices pulling back to around $4,450 by the time of the analysis. The message from the market is clear: sellers are clawing back control. In fact, an attempt to extend the rebound from the $4,099 low hit a wall, and bulls simply couldn't defend the ground they had just gained. 

Turning to the technicals, Bollinger Bands (20, 2) paint a grim picture and flash a clear warning. The price is trading well below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA20) of $4,965 and drifting ominously toward the lower edge of $4,380. A breach here would set the stage for a retest of the $4,100 zone. What's more, such widening bands are a red flag—volatility isn't going anywhere, and the bias remains to the downside.

The Relative Strength Index (14) is now sitting at 22, having briefly popped out of oversold territory. But here is the rub: the indicator's bounce hasn't turned into a sustained price rally—a classic bear market tell. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Oscillator has barely nudged into the positive zone and is already rolling over, hovering near zero. Although buyers are testing the waters, they aren't committing, so no trend can be reversed. The verdict from both indicators is unanimous: bears stay in the driver's seat.

Fundamentally, gold is fighting an uphill battle. Crude oil, buoyed by tensions in the Middle East, is holding above $89–$91 per barrel, fanning inflation fears and prompting speculation that central banks may dip into reserves to cover surging energy and defense costs. Then there is Russia. A looming ban on exporting gold bars weighing more than 100 grams, set to take effect on May 1, could trigger a wave of exits from domestic holders looking to get ahead of the curve. However, the same geopolitical turmoil fueling the sell-off could eventually turn into a lifeline if safe-haven demand kicks in. For now, though, bears are calling the shots.

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Sell gold at current levels. Place Take Profit at $4,150. Set Stop Loss at $4,750.

This forecast holds true from March 26 till April 2, 2026.