Selling gold with $4,630 in sight amid monthly highs and declining volatility

Yesterday, gold managed to claw back some of the losses incurred during recent profit-taking after hitting a monthly high. The precious metal is now trading near $4,830, licking its wounds. Today’s recovery is underpinned by the dollar’s slide to a six-week low and falling US Treasury yields. Additionally, quotes were able to hold the support zone at $4,800.

Bollinger Bands confirm the current uptrend: bullion prices are now sitting above the middle line ($4,632) and slowly approaching the channel’s upper boundary ($4,901). We also see signs of reduced volatility, reflected in the horizontal alignment of the bands and the shrinking distance between them. In other words, the current momentum is insufficient to break through the $4,900 resistance anytime soon.

Momentum indicators are singing the same tune: the uptrend lacks power. The Chaikin Oscillator, for instance, remains in positive territory but has been pointing lower since April 14. This means that buying pressure is weakening due to active profit-taking. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is creeping into the overbought zone, hovering near 70—a clear sign that bulls are still in the driver’s seat. So, one indicator is rising, while the other is falling—a perfect recipe for a short-term correction.

The fundamental picture remains mixed. The US dollar keeps losing ground amid lingering hopes for an extension of the US-Iran peace agreement. Gold, in contrast, is thriving on the news, becoming more affordable for holders of other currencies. However, once the geopolitical risk premium fades, demand for safe havens, including the precious metal, is likely to drop.

Analysts at Standard Chartered and Pepperstone believe that, under the present circumstances, bullion is behaving more like a speculative asset, moving in lockstep with risk appetite. Flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are quite moderate, offering no firm promise of a long-term rally.

Try out the trading strategy down below:

Sell gold at current levels to take profits. Place a corresponding order at $4,630.00. Set Stop loss at $4,915.00.

This forecast remains relevant between April 16 and April 23, 2026.