How does the precious metals market feel this September? It seems to be stuck in a medium-term consolidation after hitting an all-time high in January.
Recent adjustments to the 2026 targets of major Wall Street institutions, such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, indicate that gold prices may be between $4,500 and $4,900 by December.
A key bearish driver is the sudden shift in monetary policies across developed economies. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting delivered a particularly hawkish surprise, with interest rates rising to the 3.75%–4.00% range. As a result, 10-year US Treasury yields have reached multi-year highs. As a non-income-generating asset, gold fares poorly in such an environment. Investors prefer to lock in positions in an overheated market and rotate into US government bonds.
What else is worsening the picture for the precious metal? The answer is easy: cooling demand from global central banks following the peak buying seen earlier this year.
However, the ongoing Middle East crisis and the de-dollarization process are preventing gold from a deeper correction. Relentless attacks in the Red Sea and the escalating conflict surrounding Saudi Arabia are keeping global oil prices around $100 per barrel, generating persistent pro-inflationary pressure worldwide. The precious metal remains in demand as a classic hedge against stagflation and the depreciation of fiat currencies.
A long-term structural trend toward de-dollarization in emerging economies also establishes a firm price floor, helping bullion stay afloat above key cost-of-production levels.
If the Fed’s rhetoric turns increasingly hawkish and oil drops below $90, a break of the local support at $4,300 is likely. This would pave the way for speculators to liquidate long positions, targeting the $4,150–$4,100 range.
The overall recommendation is to sell gold. Profits should be taken at $4,300. Stop Loss could be set at $4,370.
Always size the position so that your potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) is no more than 1% of your account balance. If you cannot open a position that meets such a risk criterion, it is safer to skip this trade and wait for a better, lower-risk opportunity.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
