Buying gold upon breaching $4,030

There have been some local shifts in the XAUUSD technical picture: after a recent plunge, the pair bottomed out and rebounded.

The broader medium-term trend, which began on July 15, 2026, above $4,060, remains bearish. However, July 17 marked a turning point, handing the initiative to buyers, following the decline to the $3,959–$3,965 floor. Since July 20, the gold chart has shown a sequence of rising lows and highs, signaling short-term upward momentum.

The precious metal has recently pressed against the $4,024.20–$4,030.25 mirror resistance zone, which had previously served as support. The volume bar chart tends to show peak spikes when local extremes form—particularly during the drop to $3,959. What does it mean? These zones appear to be fiercely defended by major players and often trigger the closing of short positions.

We see two key scenarios in the near term:

The bullish one suggests a continuation of the rebound. If buyers manage to sustain the current momentum and keep gold prices above $4,024.20, the next target is likely to be $4,039.25. Consolidation above this level, in turn, could open the path toward stronger resistance barriers at $4,048.50 and $4,057.75, where investors might consider trimming some of their long positions.

The bearish one points to a resumption of the decline. The current upward move looks like a classic technical rebound—a retest of the previously breached zone. If the $4,024.20–$4,030.25 resistance area holds, prices are highly likely to fall again, with the first downside target at $4,011.75. Once this barrier is broken, gold could trade within the $3,993.25–$4,002.50 range. In the medium term, bears may aim to retest the low between $3,956.50 and $3,965.75.

For now, bulls have a local advantage, but they need to breach the $4,030 threshold to confirm a full-fledged reversal.

The overall recommendation is to buy gold upon breaking through $4,030. Profits should be taken at $4,050. Stop Loss could be set at $4,010.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to skip this signal and wait for other trade setups that meet low-risk criteria.