Looking at the 15-minute (M15) XAUUSD chart, we see a confident uptrend. Gold has recently rallied, jumping from local lows near $3,946.25 to new highs around $4,169.00.
After hitting these peaks, prices retreated and then consolidated, closing yesterday’s trading session at $4,124.53. Currently, gold is hovering around the horizontal support level of $4,124.88, which previously served as a critical demand zone.
What other details to watch on the chart?
Key resistance: $4,131.60, $4,150.30, and $4,169.00.
Key support: $4,124.88, $4,112.90, and $4,094.75.
Don’t forget about technical analysis, which may bring further clarity. Let’s take a closer look at some oscillators and their signals.
Volume Indicator. Columns are going lower as the uptrend loses steam. Local activity spikes occurred during breakouts of interim levels. However, the current decline in trading volume suggests that the market may temporarily lose direction and enter an accumulation phase.
Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) Indicator (12, 26, 9). The oscillator sits in negative territory, with the signal line at -1.450 and the bar chart at -1.509. Previous peaks above zero confirmed strong buying momentum. Now, the indicator is sliding below this threshold, forming local lows. With no bullish divergence in sight, bears appear to be in control in the short term.
Given the solid, broader uptrend, the current decline looks like a technical correction. But what will come next? Two scenarios are on the table:
1. Bullish scenario (baseline). If buyers manage to defend the $4,124.53–$4,124.88 support range, a consolidation phase could follow. Confirmation that bulls are regaining the upper hand will come when the MACD bar chart crosses the zero line from below. In this case, prices would run to the first resistance at $4,131.60. Breaking above it could open the path toward $4,150.30 and $4,169.00.
2. Bearish scenario (alternative). If the hourly candle closes below $4,124.53, the corrective move is likely to drag on. Sellers might push bullion down to the next support level at $4,112.90. In the event of high volatility, a short-term break below $4,094.75 is possible, where major buyers are expected to re-enter long positions at more favorable prices.
The overall recommendation is to buy gold. Profits should be taken at $4,150. Stop Loss could be set at $4,110.
Always size the position so that your potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss) is no more than 1% of your account balance. If you can’t open a position that meets such a risk criterion, it’s safer to skip this trade and wait for a better, lower-risk opportunity.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
