Gold is under pressure awaiting reversal amid geopolitical tensions

Gold remains under pressure at the beginning of this week. Despite the aggravation of the Middle East situation, investors have temporarily paused investments in gold, favoring the dollar instead. At the time of writing, the yellow metal is trading around $3,364 per ounce.

The key price driver is the risk of further Middle East escalation, which initially spurred safe-haven demand. The recent United States’ intervention in the dispute had a significant impact on investor sentiment, although the market reaction was quite muted due to uncertainty about Tehran's next steps. Iran's retaliatory measures may become a powerful catalyst for the growth of gold prices. So far, only the dollar has benefited, raising gold’s cost for foreign buyers.

Earlier last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates at 4.5%, but two possible rate cuts have been predicted for this year, providing some support for gold as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Additionally, concerns about US fiscal sustainability and rising government debt strengthened the gold's attractiveness as a safe-haven asset. However, Jerome Powell's warning about the risks of rising inflation due to trade tariffs temporarily strengthened the dollar's position, putting pressure on gold.

In the coming days, the market will be focused on the statements from Fed officials. Investors are also expecting the publication of US statistics, which may significantly affect the dollar exchange rate. The markets will also monitor developments in the Middle East situation.

As of June 23, 2025, the Stochastic Oscillator on the D1 chart formed a golden cross (where the %K line crosses the %D line from below), signaling a potential reversal. At the same time On Balance Volume (OBV) continues to decline, confirming both seller dominance and weak buying interest. This scenario may present a buying opportunity during price dips.

Current recommendation:

Buying at the current price. Take profit — 3,440. Stop loss — 3,323.50.