Natural gas hovers near critical levels as recovery looms

Today, natural gas (NG) prices have crept back toward the lows seen in October 2024, testing the key support zone of $2.59–$2.62. The downtrend that started in January has finally brought the market to a tipping point, where technicals are whispering not of further pain, but of a brewing upside correction. 

The first and loudest clue comes from the Relative Strength Index (14), now sitting at 21—deep in the oversold cellar. History suggests that, when the indicator is this low, bears have already fired their best shots. This often means a rebound is just around the corner.

The Chaikin Oscillator adds a second verse to the same song. True, it is still stuck in negative territory—a scar from weeks of relentless distribution. But here's the kicker: its line has just turned higher. Such a subtle shift could signal that major players are quietly opening positions while prices linger near the lows.

But before getting too excited, note that three forces are now pinning prices down: record domestic production, swelling storage inventories, and mild weather forecasts stretching through April, which are likely to hammer heating demand. However, look beyond the horizon, and the plot thickens. A massive 17% of Ras Laffan—the world's largest LNG facility in Qatar—has been knocked offline. Add to that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sliced roughly 10 billion cubic feet per day from global fuel supplies. The reality is quite simple: the United States can't fill this gap overnight due to terminal bottlenecks. Yet, as the global supply deficit widens, the pressure on domestic reserves will eventually reverse course. This is a powerful long-range tailwind for NG, waiting to be unleashed.

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below:

Buy natural gas near $2.62. Place Take profit at $2.86. Set Stop loss at $2.55.

This forecast holds true from April 15 till April 30, 2026.