The U.S. natural gas price has fallen back to its important support level of $2. The medium-term downtrend has been completed. A medium-term bottom is being formed before the price reverses. Thus, there is a flat in the range of $2.0–2.2.
The period of falling gas prices may come to an end, as major consumers increased their purchases amid lower prices. This trend will lead to further growth in demand and a reversal in gas prices.
The cost of LNG shipped to North Asia is $12.5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). $12.5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). This is the lowest level since June 2021.
Kpler commodity analysts estimate that China's LNG import level was 5.6 million tons in March. This is up from February's 4.95 million tons and last March's 4.8 million tons.
India was among LNG importers, returning to the market after the price fall. The country bought 1.8 million tons of gas in March, according to Kpler. That's up from 1.3 million tons recorded in February.
Turkey will continue to buy gas from other countries, supporting demand.
The head of the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPAO), Melih Khan Bilgin, confirmed that the country does not plan to stop purchasing gas from Russia, despite the development of the Sakarya gas field in the Black Sea. Turkey covers 99.5% of its needs in gas through imports from abroad. Thus, the Sakarya gas field development will not hinder the country's cooperation with Russia and other gas suppliers. Turkey buys more than 40% of all imported gas from Russia annually.
As written above, natural gas is trading in the range of $2.0–2.2. Prices are now nearing the lower boundary of the flat. There are no new negative factors for gas demand, so a rebound from the lower boundary is likely to happen. The opening of long positions at the current price could be suggested.
The growth target will be the level of $2.140. It has already acted both as support and resistance levels for the price. A stop-loss could be placed when the price goes below the bottom limit of the flat and renews the lows at $1.985.
The increase in the price of natural gas:
Take profit — 2.140.
Stop-loss — 1.985.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
