Lower gas production leads to higher prices

10 October 2023 198
Lower gas production leads to higher prices

Natural gas prices in the U.S. confirmed the upward exit from the triangle. Prices reflect the impact of several events, i.e. threats of new strikes at plants in Australia, problems with gas supplies due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and fears of a cold winter in Europe.

Israel has suspended production at the Tamar gas field near the southern coast and will seek alternative sources of fuel to meet its needs. Energy Ministry officials made the announcement on Monday.

Chevron, which operates the field, confirmed that the ministry had instructed it to shut down the mine. It is the main source of gas for Israel's power plants and industry.

Part of the raw materials of the field is also exported to neighboring Jordan and Egypt. 

Israel's largest offshore gas field, Leviathan, continues to operate normally, Chevron said. According to government data, Tamar's production increased by 18% in 2022 to 10.25 billion cubic meters.

The threat of more strikes is a driver of natural gas price growth.

On Monday, Chevron said it adheres to the agreement with unions at its Wheatstone and Gorgon facilities. The company asked the Fair Labor Commission to help resolve several issues, including travel and meal reimbursement arrangements and cabin sharing on an offshore platform.

Next week, strikes will resume at the facilities, which account for about 6% of global LNG production. Chevron confirmed that it had received notice of the work suspension.

The Offshore Alliance called off the strikes in late September after reaching an agreement brokered by the Fair Labor Commission, but last week the unions said Chevron had violated the agreement.

According to the company, a draft of the new agreement is nearly complete and the company intends to resolve the remaining issues.

According to the technical analysis, natural gas has managed to overcome the major resistance and break out of the triangle. In theory, the momentum for growth should be strong. However, it is necessary to limit the growth potential to the 1.618 Fibonacci level from the size of the figure at its base. Thus, the growth target will be the price of $3.65. Stop Loss will be set in case of a decline below yesterday's low, which corresponds to the price of 3.15 dollars.

The price of natural gas is likely to increase:

Take Profit – 3,65

Stop Loss – 3,15

This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.

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