Seasonal decline in demand and trade policies exert pressure on natural gas prices

Natural gas prices rebounded on Wednesday after declining earlier in the week, with Thursday's opening price at $3.989.

On Wednesday, the administration of US President Donald Trump announced baseline tariffs of 10% or more on all imports, excluding energy. This decision aims to curb price increases for the domestic consumers and aligns with the overall strategy of lowering energy prices.

In response to US trade policy, other countries may consider implementing duties on American liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of countermeasures. This is particularly relevant for nations that are already major buyers of gas from the United States.

However, the impact of possible retaliatory measures on global gas prices is likely to be limited. Despite imposing duties on US energy, China remains a relatively small buyer and can quickly redirect its purchases from other markets. As for Europe, which receives more than half of its LNG imports from the States, the likelihood of immediate tariff implementation is extremely low. European countries are more likely to prefer a gradual diversification of supply, given concerns about filling gas storage facilities for the next heating season.

Moreover, many countries continue to view the possibility of increasing purchases of US LNG as a tool to improve trade relations with the Trump administration and an opportunity to reduce tariff duties.

Broader market and seasonal factors could also influence natural gas consumption patterns. A potential economic slowdown in major economies such as America, EU countries, and China could lead to lower industrial demand. Additionally, with temperatures rising in the Northern Hemisphere, a decrease in demand for gas as a heating source is imminent.

On April 3, the Stochastic oscillator indicated downward momentum. This was confirmed by the %K line crossing below the %D line on April 2. This movement occurred within the neutral zone, and the current position of the lines may suggest a continuation of the correction or the beginning of a price decline in the market.

Current recommendation:

Sell at the current price. Take profit – 3.83. Stop loss – 4.06.