NVIDIA primed for rebound on positive catalysts and oversold technicals

As of January 13, 2026, NVIDIA stock (NVDA) finds itself in a holding pattern, caught between bullish hopes and bearish pressure after a day of sharp swings. However, beneath the surface, both technicals and fundamentals suggest that a relief rally could be around the corner.

The chart is totally flashing green for a potential bounce. Notably, the Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) is buried deep in oversold territory (%K=15, %D=24)—a telltale sign that selling pressure might be fizzling out. Although a bullish crossover hasn't been triggered, extreme readings and converging lines significantly raise the odds for a near-term leg higher. 

Adding weight to this view, the Chaikin Oscillator—while still in the red—printed a positive value in the last trading session. This subtle yet important shift indicates that the relentless selling pressure is starting to abate, and buying interest is tentatively returning. Taken together, these factors create a favorable setup for a tactical rebound, particularly if the price holds above the $183.00 zone.

Fundamentally, the picture is more nuanced. On the bright side, the Trump administration has formally greenlit exports of H200 chips to China, albeit with certain strings attached. This opens the door to orders for over 2 million neural processing units (NPUs)—a deal that could pad NVIDIA's coffers by tens of billions of dollars. The catch, however, lies in execution: Chinese regulators are dragging their feet on commercial approvals, creating a bottleneck that tempers immediate investor optimism.

Put simply, the stars are now aligning for a rebound in the short run. Oversold conditions are ripe, and the export license news provides a catalytic narrative. Still, expect any bounce to be capped and choppy—sustained recovery will require high trading volumes and follow-through, with the latter remaining at the mercy of Asian regulators. 

Here's a trading plan to take into account:

Buy NVIDIA shares at the current price. Take profit should be set at $193.00. Stop loss could be placed at $178.00. 

This forecast is relevant from January 14 to January 21, 2026.