Buying NVIDIA stock on optimistic outlook for company

NVIDIA stock (NVDA) fell 0.47% on Tuesday, with a closing price of $120.54, despite a delay in the imposition of duties on Taiwanese semiconductors. Investors remain cautious, assessing consumer sentiment and the Trump administration's policies. They are concerned about the possible imposition of duties in the future. 

After the GTC conference on March 17–21, which introduced groundbreaking chips and AI technologies, the company faced disappointment from some investors, which led NVIDIA’s stock to fall more than 3%. Market reaction was mixed despite the announcement of promising developments, including the Blackwell architecture and new computing platforms due for release between 2026 and 2028.

The company is forecasting quarterly revenue of $43 billion in April. NVIDIA’s growth is exceeding the analysts’ expectations. However, competition with Amazon Web Services, which offers Trainium chips for data centers for 25% of the NVIDIA chip price, is creating tension in the high-end market.

The pressure on NVIDIA is intensified by geopolitical risks associated with export of advanced artificial intelligence chips. The US has stepped up efforts to prevent unauthorized re-export of this technology to China via third countries such as Malaysia and Singapore.

Despite a temporary downturn following DeepSeek's presentation, Wall Street remains optimistic about NVIDIA's long-term prospects. The consensus “buy” rating is backed by revenue growth forecasts of 57% in fiscal 2026 and 23% next year. CEO Jensen Huang sees the potential for the company to reach $1 trillion in data center revenue by 2028, which could significantly boost the NVIDIA’s stock, with its current price at $120.54.

As of March 26, the MACD indicator shows a bearish trend in the market. However, recent days have seen an increase in the MACD value, which points to a slowdown in the price decline and the possible beginning of a reversal. At the same time, the difference between MACD line and the signal line is narrowing, which may foreshadow their upward crossover. This signals a potential change of trend from bearish to bullish.

The Stochastic oscillator shows that the market is in the neutral zone. On March 21, there was a crossing of lines from bottom to top, which is a signal to open positions. The current position (%K above %D) also indicates a possible recovery and a change of the trend to bullish.

Current recommendation:

Buy at the current price. Take profit – 130. Stop loss – 112.5.