Silver's slide isn't over as strong jobs data and geopolitical heat take their toll

Silver is trading around $72 per ounce on Monday, desperately trying to halt the decline that began last week. What sparked the sell-off? A blockbuster US jobs report. March payrolls came in at 178,000—smashing expectations of just 60,000—while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. This sends a clear message to the Federal Reserve (Fed): no interest rate cuts are seen on the horizon. And markets got the hint right. 

Tensions in the Middle East are only making life harder for the precious metal. The American President's Tuesday evening deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, paired with blunt threats against Iran, has oil locked above $100 per barrel. For silver, this is a double blow. Reason one: bullion typically pays no yield, so it gets hammered when borrowing costs stay elevated and the dollar flexes its muscles. Reason two: as an industrial metal, it is vulnerable to any slowdown in global growth—bad news for electronics manufacturers and solar panel producers. Even the usual safe-haven bid isn't showing up. Instead, investors are cashing out of silver to plug holes in losing trades elsewhere.

But the real test is yet to come. Next week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March could be a game-changer. A hot print would likely dash any lingering hopes for Fed monetary easing this year—and possibly spark another leg down in the metal. 

The technicals back up this negative story. Silver is treading water near its opening level after retreating from a local peak of 80.485. The bounce has been feeble so far—a textbook sign of a market in retreat, where weak rallies get sold into. The Chaikin Oscillator is moving lower in sync with the price, signaling that selling pressure is building. Concurrently, the Average Directional Index (ADX) sits at 22, suggesting no strong trend is in place. However, dig a little deeper: -DI stands at 24, which is comfortably above +DI at 17. Meanwhile, the ADX line points lower. Such a configuration often shows that bears are in the driver's seat, and once the current consolidation runs its course, the decline could accelerate.

For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan down below: 

Sell silver at the current price. Lock in profits at $65.00. Place Stop Loss at $78.00.

This forecast holds true from April 6 till April 13, 2026.