Silver bids for support amid new geopolitical jitters

Silver took a hit on June 29, ending a two-day recovery that had gained traction since late last week. Renewed jitters in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend sent oil prices shooting higher and brought inflation fears roaring back to the forefront—enough to derail the metal's fragile rebound.

On paper, the two sides have agreed to pause military action ahead of talks set to resume in Doha this week. This sounds positive, but the market trades on risk, not relief. The agreement is temporary, and it does nothing to address the inflationary pressures that have been simmering beneath the surface. To make matters worse, the issue is exacerbated by a stubbornly strong dollar and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that remains well above the Federal Reserve's comfort zone—both of which have historically been a drag on silver's appeal as a zero-yielding asset. Adding to the gloom, the CME FedWatch tool continues to show a strong chance of an interest rate hike before the end of the year, casting a long shadow over the metal's medium-term fate.

On the technical front, silver is trading near $58.45 at press time, trapped within a long-term downward channel. It has recently bounced off the lower end of the range, though the rebound has fizzled out. That said, the Stochastic Oscillator is flashing a faint ray of hope; its lines have crossed in and out of oversold territory, hinting that sellers may be growing weary. This type of reading often paves the way for a short-lived recovery, even when the broader trend is pointing down.

As for the week ahead, all eyes will be on US labor market data. The main events are the ADP report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which are likely to stir up fresh volatility. Nevertheless, the technical setup suggests that a near-term bounce from current levels is the most plausible scenario.

For those looking to act, here is the trading plan:

Buy silver at around $58.00. Place Take profit at $62.30. Set Stop loss at $54.60.

This forecast holds true from June 29 till July 6, 2026.