Tesla stock selloff on forecasts of declining deliveries and earnings

Traders appear to be falling out of love with Tesla’s shares (TSLA). The latest trading session ended deep in red territory, with a bearish candle that had a long upper wick—a clear sign of buyers’ unsuccessful attempts to push the price above $468. This indicates that sellers still have a grip on the market, and short-term upward momentum is waning.

This view is confirmed by the technical setup. Quotes have consolidated below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA 20) at $463.84. Its position in the lower part of the channel implies less active buying and fading investor interest.

Meanwhile, the Stochastic Indicator continues to decline. It hasn't entered oversold territory yet, but it seems to be only a matter of time, as price momentum is waning.

The steadily negative Chaikin Oscillator is another sign pointing to further weakness. It highlights capital outflows and a lack of trading volume support. So, attempts to rebound or correct will probably be vulnerable amid persistent selling pressure and insufficient buying levels.

Fundamental factors also raise concerns. Tesla’s sales keep declining, despite a 22% share price increase this year. Vehicle deliveries are expected to fall by 7.7% in 2025, with earnings projections deteriorating. For now, investors are turning a blind eye to these facts, but the problem is already at the door, with the recent Cybertruck battery shipment disruption and major supplier contract cancellations. These events are planting seeds of doubt regarding Musk’s ambitious plans. Furthermore, Tesla’s rivals from China, such as BYD, are breathing down its neck. According to forecasts, they could surpass the tech giant in global sales as early as this year. This also weighs on the stock.

Try out the trading strategy presented down below:

Our analysis suggests that Tesla’s shares will continue to decline in early January. Under these circumstances, it is advisable to sell TSLA at the current price, with Take profit at $430.00 and Stop loss at $485.00.

This forecast holds true between December 30, 2025, and January 6, 2026.