The USDCAD pair is taking a breather right now, pulling back within the solid uptrend that has been running since September. After peaking on November 21, the price has been drifting lower toward 1.40700 but remains comfortably inside the ascending channel—this looks like a healthy pause before the next leg up.
Technical indicators back up this corrective picture. The Stochastic Oscillator, sitting in neutral territory, has flashed a bearish crossover—that's where the fast %K line drops below the slow %D one. This tells us buying momentum is fading, and there's some short-term downward pressure. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Oscillator is stuck in the negative zone and still falling, which clearly shows sellers have been more active lately.
However, don't be fooled by short-term signals—the bigger picture favors the bulls, with quotes staying within the ascending channel. Key levels to watch are the trendline support at 1.40360 and the psychological 1.4000 mark. As long as the price holds above this range, such a dip looks like a routine pullback to gather steam for a new push-up.
Fundamentally, USDCAD is being tugged in two directions. On the USD side, the greenback is feeling soft on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates soon, especially after some weak retail sales data and dovish comments from officials. On the CAD side, the loonie is struggling due to depressing oil prices, a major headwind for a commodity currency like the Canadian dollar.
The current softness might last into December 3, but once the pair approaches these key support levels, expect buyers to jump back in and turn things around within the larger bullish trend.
Consider the trading plan down below:
Buy USDCAD on a rebound from support at 1.40360. Take profit: 1.41600. Stop loss: 1.39900.
This forecast is valid between November 26 and December 3, 2025.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
