USDCAD attempts to breach upper limit of ascending channel amid geopolitical fog

USDCAD is climbing decisively higher. After rallying since the start of the week, the pair touched 1.37705 on March 25, approaching the upper limit of an ascending parallel channel at 1.37900.

Trading volumes have also underpinned the pair over the past few days, with the most notable spike taking place on March 23, when USDCAD hit 1.37172. This level now serves as a primary support zone for bulls and a likely entry point in case of a correction. The current dynamic—with prices and volumes moving up in lockstep—reflects that large investors are eagerly contributing to the ascent.

The Chaikin Oscillator confirms this view. The indicator has been steadily climbing since March 13, showing no intention of leaving positive territory and signaling active accumulation, along with a supply-demand imbalance.

Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator has just generated bearish momentum, though this appears to be a temporary move and should be viewed in a broader context. Its lines turned lower following last week’s consolidation—a telltale sign of a technical cooldown after a trend pause, rather than a full-blown reversal. Once the indicator resumes its growth, a quick pivot is likely, confirming the continuation of the ascent.

The fundamental picture is rather mixed. A five-day ceasefire in the Middle East, announced by US President Donald Trump, is set to expire on March 28–29. Renewed hostilities or failed negotiations could trigger another spike in oil prices, with Brent crude testing levels above $100–$110. Typically, this would be a positive catalyst for the Canadian dollar. On the flip side, escalating geopolitical jitters might strengthen the greenback due to its safe-haven status, potentially neutralizing the energy‑related boost for the loonie.

Consider the trading plan outlined below:

Buy USDCAD during a pullback following a potential test of the 1.37170 resistance level. We anticipate the current uptrend to continue within the channel’s boundaries. Place Take profit at 1.38000. Set Stop loss at 1.36700.

This forecast remains relevant between March 25 and April 1, 2026.