Friday morning finds USDCAD in a confident stride, hovering near 1.3723. After the pair's strong performance, bulls have every reason to feel smug. However, with the price knocking on a formidable resistance zone—the upper edge of the prevailing channel—momentum could hit a speed bump. So don't be surprised if a brief pause or a short-term pullback comes into play before the next leg higher.
Taking a broader view, the trend is textbook. Since late January, AUDUSD has been carving out a parallel ascending channel, thus offering a clear roadmap. Right now, it is trading in the upper third of this formation, which tells you one thing: buyers are firmly in control. Still, with the ceiling fast approaching, the chances for a technical pullback or consolidation are rising. The first real test is likely to take stage at the recent peak of 1.3752. If it pushes past that, the path to the channel's upper limit at 1.37925 will open up.
Under the hood, the Chaikin Oscillator is backing the move. It is holding firmly above zero—a telltale sign that real money is flowing in, not just speculative noise. Over the past few days, the indicator has stayed in positive territory, showing no signs that the buying tide is ebbing.
Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator tells a slightly more cautious story. Yes, its lines are steadily climbing, underscoring that bullish steam is still very much alive. But they are also inching uncomfortably close to overbought territory. Pair that with the quotes knocking on resistance, and it is flashing a yellow light—a correction could be just around the corner.
Fundamentals are serving up a mixed bag, yet the overall tilt favors the loonie's rally. On the one hand, the Canadian dollar is getting a hefty boost from sky-high oil prices—WTI and Brent are both entrenched well above $100 per barrel, thanks to the relentless Middle East conflict choking supplies and keeping energy markets on edge. Such crude strength is classic rocket fuel for CAD, propping it up against the greenback. On the other hand, the US dollar is flexing its safe-haven muscles amid the same geopolitical uncertainty—investors flock to it in rocky times, creating a perfect storm that favors more gains for the pair.
For those looking to act, pay attention to the trading plan outlined below:
Buy USDCAD on a pullback from the 1.36850 resistance. Place Take Profit at 1.37750. Set Stop Loss at 1.36150.
This forecast is relevant between March 20 and March 27, 2026.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investing advice.
