Selling USDCAD at the trend support level of 1.3545 amid strengthening of the Canadian currency

On Wednesday, the USDCAD currency pair continues to decline for the sixth consecutive trading session. Concerns about a broader regional conflict in the Middle East weakened. Against this background, the attractiveness of the oil price is weakening. However, it increases the demand for the Canadian dollar, as Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the US.

Data on retail sales are expected today. Statistics Canada predicts a 0.1% increase in retail sales in March after a 0.3% drop in the previous month. Confirmation of these expectations could strengthen the Canadian dollar.

Currently, the market is waiting for important US economic data that could influence the Fed's interest rate decisions. The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released on Friday and could confirm the persistence of price pressures in March.

In the US, economic activity showed a decline to a 4-month low on Tuesday due to weakening demand and slowing inflation. This gives the Fed reason to wait for signs that the economy is weakening enough to suppress inflation. Investors are now predicting the first rate cut in September at the earliest.

The USDCAD pair is forming an upward corrective trend on the D1 timeframe. The price has consolidated behind the local channel line, aiming for the main trend support. Canadian news today could correct the currency pair to the line of the ascending channel. Negative readings of the Bears Power (standard values) on the H4 timeframe indicate a downward price trend.

Signal:

The short-term outlook for the USDCAD pair is to sell.

The target is near the level of 1.3545.

Part of the profit should be fixed near the level of 1.3615.

The Stop-loss could be placed near the level of 1.3760.

The bearish trend is of a short-term nature, so it is suggested to limit the trading volume to no more than 2% of your capital.