Buying USDJPY with 156.800 in sight as prices rebound

USDJPY keeps grinding higher, building on its recovery after pulling back from the recent peak near 157.662. During morning trading on February 19, 2026, quotes cemented a foothold above the psychological 155.000 threshold.

Looking at the daily chart, it seems that things are shaping up nicely for bulls. Specifically, breaching the Bollinger Band midline at 154.616 could be a turning point for the pair, often interpreted as the first whisper of a short-term trend shift. With USDJPY now sitting in the upper half of the channel, between the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 158.048 resistance, there is room to run before it becomes overextended. Behind the scenes, the Chaikin Oscillator tells a compelling story. Although still in the red, the indicator has decisively turned higher and posted consistent gains in recent sessions. This typically means buyers are quietly building up positions, even if it's not obvious from the price action alone.

The Stochastic Oscillator adds weight to the bullish case. After spending some time in oversold territory, both %K and %D lines have bounced back to neutral levels around 54 and 35, respectively. What's more, they are now pointing up but aren't flashing "overheated", which leaves the door open for more upside. All in all, being right in the middle means you can't rule out a technical move in either way.

On the yen side, the fundamental picture is far from being one-directional. Most economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to hike interest rates to 1% by mid-year, with some betting on an April move. Yet, clouds linger. Prime Minister Takaichi's fiscal plans are raising concerns over the country's debt down the road, and that's keeping a lid on any real currency strength.

Across the Pacific, the dollar's path is much clearer. January's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes revealed quiet hawkish undertones—some participants see rates heading higher if inflation persists. Sturdy US data continues to feed the greenback's momentum, offering the pair a nice tailwind.

The plan down below may become part of your trading:

Buy USDJPY below 155. Place Take profit at 156.80. Set Stop loss at 153.00.

This forecast holds true from February 19 till February 27, 2026.