Selling USDJPY with 158.00 target amid looming risks of BoJ intervention

The USDJPY pair is cautiously recovering after its late-March correction. However, the dollar still wears the crown and is unlikely to give it away in the short term. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are the power behind the throne. With no clear prospects for de-escalation and continued risks of energy supply disruptions, demand for the greenback as a safe haven remains high.

The Bank of Japan is hardly capable of breaking this trend. During his first press conference, new BoJ board member Toichiro Asada avoided being straightforward, dodging questions and shifting investors’ focus toward economic data. The market interpreted his behavior as a sign of no imminent monetary tightening. As a result, the yen slipped back to the 158.5–159 range.

Moreover, the risk of currency intervention is mounting. Japanese authorities keep talking about “decisive measures”, while hedge funds are building up option positions betting on the pair’s decline toward 160. In 2024, the Ministry of Finance stepped in right at this level. For now, however, there are only looming threats of intervention and no concrete signs of action. Therefore, the dollar continues to stir the wheel.

Friday’s US labor market report could be another catalyst for the pair. Strong data would boost the odds of testing the 160 level. If the figures come in weaker than expected, a correction could follow as investors price in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) response. The same story happened last December.

From a technical standpoint, a bullish recovery is visible on the chart. Prices are rising steadily today, April 2, forming a long-awaited green candle after the late March pullback. USDJPY is now sitting above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA20) near 158.675—solid support—confirming the current positive dynamic. The Chaikin Oscillator offers further evidence of bullish momentum. The indicator has recently returned to positive territory, aiming to climb higher. In other words, we are witnessing capital inflows and position accumulation.

Keep in mind the following trading plan:

Sell USDJPY near 159.70, with Take profit at 158.00 and Stop loss at 160.50.

This forecast remains relevant between April 2 and April 9, 2026.