USDJPY struggles to climb above 160.00 resistance

As of April 21, 2026, USDJPY lacks a clear trend, torn between two powerful forces. On the one side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its cautious monetary stance, which puts the yen under pressure; on the other, the risk of Tokyo’s currency intervention increases as the pair approaches the 160.00 level.

So, what fundamental factors are at play?

BoJ hesitancy. Governor Kazuo Ueda has warned of rising stagflation risks due to elevated energy prices. The likelihood of a rate hike at the regulator’s upcoming meeting on April 30 has just dropped to 15%, leaving the yen without much-needed support.

Intervention threat. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has recently become more aggressive with words. Traders are growing increasingly concerned that a move above 160.00 could trigger direct dollar selling by the BoJ.

Geopolitical tensions. The central bank prefers to act cautiously amid the heated atmosphere in the Middle East. However, the yen’s status of a safe haven is now weaker due to the country’s dependence on expensive fuel imports.

US macroeconomic data. Today’s retail sales report could provide the momentum that quotes have been searching for. Strong readings will strengthen the greenback, tempting USDJPY to test the dangerous 160.00 zone.

All in all, the primary outlook for the pair points to a bullish trend. Nevertheless, the proximity to 160.00 makes long positions quite risky, as Japan's regulator is lurking just around the corner, ready to intervene. If this scenario unfolds, quotes could lose 200 to 500 pips.

The overall recommendation is to sell USDJPY from the 160.00 level. Profits should be taken at 159.20. Stop Loss could be set at 160.80.

The volume of the open position should be calculated so that the potential loss (protected by a Stop Loss order) does not exceed 1% of your deposit. If your account balance does not allow opening a position of this size, it is better to avoid entering the market on this signal and wait for other trade options that meet low-risk criteria.