Selling USDJPY with 144.750 target amid persistent bearish pressure and weak support

The USDJPY pair is currently trading in a flat after pulling back from a recent high. The price remains confined within a tight range, fluctuating between 148.072 and 146.520. As of now, the pair sits at 147.082.

The D1 timeframe shows a classic consolidation pattern. The EMA(20) is above the EMA(50), with the price hovering between the two. This indicates a lack of clear directional momentum. The MACD reveals a bullish bar chart, with its line positioned above the signal one. However, the narrowing gap between them suggests weakening upward momentum. Concurrently, the Stochastic Oscillator is holding near oversold territory (%K and %D being around 20), yet without a clear crossover, therefore leaving the reversal signals unconfirmed. While oversold conditions suggest a potential rebound, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues its downtrend, indicating persistent selling pressure and low buyer interest.

The four-hour (H4) chart also says that there's been no growth, with both moving averages sitting above the current price. The MACD shows a negative bar chart, indicating that bearish pressure will likely keep going in the short term. In addition, the OBV continues its downward trajectory. Although the Stochastic Oscillator shows a bullish reading, it appears isolated and unreliable against the broader bearish backdrop, suggesting a potential false signal.

In general, bearish factors are still in the driver's seat. Continued drop is more likely, especially if key support levels are breached. The first support is the lower boundary of the flat at 146.520. If this threshold is broken, the decline could accelerate to 144.750.

Trading strategy to consider:

Sell USDJPY. Close the position at the current price or when quotes go up to 148.770 (the key resistance level and Stop Loss). Take Profit is set at 144.750, which is a strong support zone.

This forecast is valid from August 7 to August 14, 2025.