JP Morgan’s copper forecast reflects short-term optimism and long-term caution

According to the forecast from JP Morgan’s analysts, an average copper price will reach $9,225 per ton in the second half of 2025. They named the temporary improvement in trade relations between the US and China as a key support factor. This, in their opinion, reduced the likelihood of recession and mitigated the risks of falling demand for industrial metals.

Washington and Beijing agreed on a 90-day suspension of mutual duties after a meeting in Geneva, stimulating purchases by Chinese importers. As stated by JP Morgan, price growth may continue in the short term, but weaker dynamics are expected in the second half of the year amid slowing global demand.

According to the bank's assessment, the weakening of microfundamental factors, which previously supported the copper market, is becoming more noticeable. At the same time, the rise in the supplies to Asia in the upcoming months is possible, as excess inventories in the US may be reduced following the imposition of expected import duties.

Though JP Morgan sees the potential for copper prices to rise above $9,500 per ton in the near future, they warn of the high sensitivity of the Chinese market to current price levels.