US copper imports to decline after tariffs imposed amid excess inventories — UBS

According to UBS, copper imports to the US will decline sharply in the coming months due to the accumulation of excess inventories prior to the implementation of 50% tariffs on August 1.

Since the beginning of the year, US imports of the refined red metal have increased by approximately 400,000 tons, which is 130% more than last year. With domestic demand remaining virtually unchanged, UBS estimates that 500,000 to 700,000 tons of the accumulated reserves will remain in warehouses, covering up to 40% of the US's annual copper needs.

The bank's analysts predict that imports will stay high throughout July. However, after the tariff takes effect on August 1, the US will seek to reduce these excess stocks rather than continue increasing purchases.

Currently, supplies of refined copper to the US from key exporters such as Chile and Canada exceed 200,000 tons per month. UBS estimates that these flows will be redirected to other markets. Meanwhile, although global visible stocks of the industrial metal have increased slightly in recent months, they remain at normal levels.