23 November 2022 | Other

Goldman expects 10-year Treasury Yields to be 4% or higher until 2024

The Federal Reserve System is fighting inflation and limiting the economic downturn successfully, so U.S. benchmark bonds will trade at 4% yield level or higher. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this will last until at least the end of 2024.

Praveen Korapaty, Goldman Sachs chief rate strategist explained that the yield forecasts are based on the absence of a visible recession and analysts believe that inflation will still be above the FRS target. In his view, monetary policy easing is unlikely if there is no recession and inflation is above the FRS target.

10-year Treasury bond yields have been trading at 4% or higher in 2022 since late September for 23 days. Currently, it is around 3.75%.

Currently, the target rate level is in the range of 3.75% and 4%. According to swap traders, approximately in June, the base rate will peak at slightly more than 5%. Officials will increase it first and then decrease it to about 4.6% by the end of 2023.

During the last days, growing speculation about the slowdown in the FRS rate increases caused the decrease in the yields of 10-year bonds. On October 21, they reached their highest level since 2007 with 4.34%.

Company MarketCheese
Period: 11.07.2025 Expectation: 920 pips
GBPUSD falls as UK GDP unexpectedly shrinks
11 July 2025 30
Brent sell
Period: 17.07.2025 Expectation: 150 pips
OPEC's gloomy forecast drags Brent crude prices lower
11 July 2025 49
Period: 17.07.2025 Expectation: 26000 pips
Institutional investor demand could push ETHUSD to 3,000
10 July 2025 65
Period: 16.07.2025 Expectation: 2000 pips
USDJPY prepares to retest 148 Level
10 July 2025 54
Period: 16.07.2025 Expectation: 900 pips
NVIDIA shares rise amid global AI infrastructure investments
09 July 2025 88
Period: 15.07.2025 Expectation: 800 pips
Breaking downtrend could push USDCAD to 1.375
09 July 2025 58
Go to forecasts