Goldman cuts its oil price forecast on dimming outlook for US growth

Goldman Sachs reduced its 2025 oil price forecast. The bank's decision follows Donald Trump's tariff policy and its impact on the US economy, as well as OPEC+ plans to start unwinding its output cuts, starting from April.

Goldman Sachs analysts lowered their December 2025 forecast for Brent from $76 to $71 per barrel. The experts also warned about the downside risks for prices concerning a possible escalation of trade tensions and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.

According to the International Energy Agency, the demand for oil is decreasing due to the above factors. Therefore, in 2025, the oil market will face a surplus of 600,000 barrels (0.6% of daily global consumption).

However, Goldman Sachs expects a moderate recovery in oil prices in the coming months as US economic growth stays resilient for now, and other geopolitical risks remain. The experts forecast that Brent crude will trade in a range of $65 to $80 per barrel and will average $68 next year.