Goldman Sachs sees yen as best safe haven in case of US recession

According to Goldman Sachs, the yen could strengthen by 7% this year to reach 140 against the dollar. This is due to increasing concerns about US economic growth and trade tariffs.

In addition, the bank's analysts revised their forecast for US monetary policy. They reduced the number of expected rate cuts this year from four to three.

Goldman Sachs experts believe that the yen is the best hedge for investors in case of a recession in the United States. However, as Bloomberg notes, there are risks to such a strategy. Over the past four years, the Japanese currency has experienced significant devaluation. In addition, hedge funds continue to hold mostly short positions on this monetary unit. 

Data on the US labor market will have a greater impact on the yen exchange rate than President Donald Trump's import tariffs, the bank's analysts say. Meanwhile, Bloomberg experts believe that the dollar's decline against the Japanese currency will be driven by a narrowing of Treasury yield spreads.