At the beginning of the year, investors were making predictions and assumptions about inflation and rising U.S. rates as the dollar looked more unstoppable. They are now opposing it more and more.
Price falls are encouraging markets to ease expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. According to JPMorgan Asset Management and Morgan Stanley, which have been maintaining bullish policies, the era of a stronger dollar is ending, which could open up new prospects for the currencies of Europe, Japan and developing markets.
Kerry Craig is a strategist at JPMorgan Asset in Melbourne, which controls $2.5 trillion. He said that markets got a better understanding of the FRS's trajectory, and the dollar is losing its one-way buying position, giving other currencies, such as the euro and yen, opportunities to recover.
Deeper conclusions by FRS officials about the global reserve currency and slowing inflation are contributing to hypotheses about a slower rate increase. A discussion of the best way to trade the dollar is going on the background of this.
The consequences of a long-term fall of the dollar are not just about currency markets. The European economy will be less stressed by imported inflation, food prices for the poorest countries will fall, and the burden of debt repayment for governments which have borrowed in U.S. currency will decrease.