Yahoo Finance: official data and public opinion on US economy diverge

Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's optimism regarding the economy, even while acknowledging a slowdown in US GDP growth, Yahoo Finance analysts are highlighting a concerning discrepancy between polling data and economic indicators.

Surveys of the population and industry professionals indicate a deteriorating economic outlook. Market forecasts from Kalshi suggest the probability of a recession has increased to 40%. Simultaneously, the consumer confidence index reflects a decline in public sentiment. These could signal an impending economic slowdown, Yahoo Finance warns.

Countering these negative trends, key US economic indicators remain robust. After a decline in January, retail sales rebounded in February, and the PMI from S&P Global unexpectedly rose to 53.5 points in March. These indicators, by demonstrating stability, may create a false sense of confidence.

Experts argue that the Fed, by downplaying «soft» survey data, may be underestimating potential dangers. They caution that a balanced assessment of the economy requires weighing both objective metrics and public sentiment to avoid misjudging the outlook.