Mary Daly, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President, sees a possibility of two interest rate cuts this year. Besides, she believes price effects from import duties may be weaker than expected.
Mary Daly, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President, sees a possibility of two interest rate cuts this year. Besides, she believes price effects from import duties may be weaker than expected.
Global official dollar reserves increased significantly in Q1 despite pressure on the US currency, Standard Chartered notes. In the first quarter of this year, the indicator rose by $168 billion. Of this amount, $90 billion was allocated to the United States.
Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that the American dollar could revert to exhibiting characteristics typical of riskier currencies. While dollar volatility has eased in recent weeks, underlying factors remain that could make it vulnerable to renewed market turbulence.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is deeply concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. Unlike many experts, his worry is not prolonged maintenance of current rates but the risk of further hikes. While markets estimate the likelihood of such a scenario at just 20%, Dimon puts it at 40–50%.
Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States declined in the week ended July 5, falling for the fourth week to the lowest level in two months.
Mary Daly, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President, sees a possibility of two interest rate cuts this year. Besides, she believes price effects from import duties may be weaker than expected.
UBS maintains its year-end forecast for the euro-dollar pair at 1.2000 for the third quarter (Q3). By December, according to analysts, it could reach 1.2300. It is worth noting that UBS Q2 expectations were met, with the pair hitting 1.1800.
According to the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) June 17–18 meeting published on Wednesday, financial market participants have once again postponed the expected completion date for the reduction of the central bank's balance sheet.
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 57.7% in Q1 2025, a decline contrasted by euro-denominated reserves gaining traction.
Only a few Fed officials at the June 17–18 meeting suggested a potential rate cut in July, while most policymakers expressed concerns about inflationary pressures that could worsen due to the US administration's ambiguous policies, Reuters reports.
A decrease of the indicator value may contribute to the fall in quotes of USD.
The dollar is the monetary unit of the United States (US). It is also used as the official currency by some other countries (Ecuador, Zimbabwe, El Salvador). The dollar holds a leading position in the world economy.
At the moment, the dollar dominates the system of international settlements with almost 50% share (the euro ranks second with less than 25%). Meanwhile, the dollar's dominance is even more pronounced in the financial sector, on the foreign exchange market, and in the government reserves.
The US currency (USD) quotes, as well as those of its foreign counterparts, depend primarily on the economic and political situation in the issuing country. The US authorities, such as the Federal Reserve System (the Fed) and the Department of the Treasury, influence the dollar exchange rate by changing their monetary, fiscal, budget, and tax policies.
Moreover, the value of the dollar may be significantly affected by the latest news and the international situation. Global economic problems and rising geopolitical tensions have historically been favorable for the US currency, as investors consider it one of the major safe-haven assets, along with gold. In contrast, during periods of strong economic growth and a relatively calm global environment, the demand for the dollar tend to reduce.