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14 April 2025 | Other

Barclays raises UK GDP growth forecast to 0.7% in Q1

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Barclays raises UK GDP growth forecast to 0.7% in Q1

Barclays has revised its UK GDP growth forecast in the first quarter (Q1) up to 0.7%, following the release of optimistic economic data for February. The increase was caused by a significant rise in US export volumes by companies attempting to avoid future duties.

However, the bank's experts emphasize the temporary nature of this effect, cautioning about the negative impact of trade tariffs in the Q2. According to Barclays, although various sectors of the UK economy are strengthening, the labor market is weakening, as confirmed by an increasing number of layoffs.

Projecting further changes, Barclays waits for a decline in core inflation and a slowdown in wage growth. The experts believe that these factors will have a deflationary impact on the economy, which the Bank of England will take into account when making its rate decisions.

Elizaveta Kuzmicheva MarketCheese

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