Analysts expect oil prices to continue falling under the current US administration's policies

According to JPMorgan experts, the current policy of the Trump administration may lead to a significant decline in oil prices. Meanwhile, the government is expected to intervene only when the price of WTI reaches $50 per barrel.

Considering the impact of President Trump's trade policy, analysts note the negative effect that trade uncertainty has on demand, aggravated by the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production. The cost of WTI benchmark crude has already fallen below $61, having lost more than 14% since the beginning of the year, while the price of Brent is hovering around $65 per barrel.

According to Ed Hirs of the University of Houston, the 15% increase in the cost of well drilling makes it unprofitable to produce at prices below $70. As he believes, if current trends continue, US shale companies will face serious difficulties, which will lead to production cuts as early as 2026.

As a result, the energy sector of the stock market shows a significant decline, having lost all the gains of the first quarter of 2025. JPMorgan analysts forecast a further drop of WTI below $60 in August and down to $55 per barrel towards the end of the year.