15 April | Oil

Analysts expect oil prices to continue falling under the current US administration's policies

Analysts expect oil prices to continue falling under the current US administration's policies

According to JPMorgan experts, the current policy of the Trump administration may lead to a significant decline in oil prices. Meanwhile, the government is expected to intervene only when the price of WTI reaches $50 per barrel.

Considering the impact of President Trump's trade policy, analysts note the negative effect that trade uncertainty has on demand, aggravated by the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production. The cost of WTI benchmark crude has already fallen below $61, having lost more than 14% since the beginning of the year, while the price of Brent is hovering around $65 per barrel.

According to Ed Hirs of the University of Houston, the 15% increase in the cost of well drilling makes it unprofitable to produce at prices below $70. As he believes, if current trends continue, US shale companies will face serious difficulties, which will lead to production cuts as early as 2026.

As a result, the energy sector of the stock market shows a significant decline, having lost all the gains of the first quarter of 2025. JPMorgan analysts forecast a further drop of WTI below $60 in August and down to $55 per barrel towards the end of the year.

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