US significantly lowers global oil demand growth projections for 2025

The US has significantly lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025, now predicting an increase of 900,000 barrels per day (bpd). This is 400,000 bpd lower than the previous outlook, according to Bloomberg.

This revision is linked to economic uncertainty stemming from US tariffs. American oil prices dropped over 15% in April, nearing a four-year low. Analysts believe the escalating trade disputes, particularly between the US and China, are the primary driver. These disputes have led traders to reassess risks to oil demand.

Adding to price pressures are potential production increases by OPEC+ raising oversupply fears, and a projection that American oil production will slightly decrease from 13.76 million bpd to 13.56 million bpd in 2025. 

Shale oil producers are reportedly hesitant to boost output with WTI crude prices hovering around $60 per barrel, a level near or below breakeven for some.

Bloomberg also notes a forecast for US gasoline prices to average $3.10 per gallon in the summer of 2025, which would be the lowest since 2020.