30 November 2022 | Other

Dollar is weakening ahead of Powell's speech

The dollar is falling before Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), delivers a speech. The event is due to take place on Wednesday, November 30. 

The market is going to see if there are more signs of the regulator’s "hawkish" stance in Powell’s speech. 

Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at UBS in New York, said that there has been a significant U.S. dollar reversal since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being published in October. Therefore, the pace of monetary tightening can be less rapid. And the dollar is likely to start falling with interest rates hitting their highs in early 2023. 

The U.S. central bank meeting on December 13-14 is projected to end with an interest rate hike of 50 basis points. However, the possibility of a 0.75% rise cannot be ruled out. The potential for a 75-basis-point rate hike has increased in recent weeks. It stands at 37%. 

Traders believe the Fed funds rate will peak at 5.01% in June. But there will be a further drop to 4.64% next December.

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