Barclays cuts Brent oil price forecast as OPEC+ boosts output

Barclays has cut its Brent crude price forecast yet again. The bank now expects oil to average $66 per barrel in 2025, down from its previous estimate of $70, while its 2026 outlook has been trimmed from $62 to $60. Analysts say the downgrade reflects OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increases.

According to Reuters, OPEC+ is preparing to boost its oil output by 411,000 barrels per day in June. Saudi Arabia is pushing to accelerate the rollback of previously agreed production cuts, targeting quota-violating members Iraq and Kazakhstan.

Barclays analysts emphasize that OPEC+'s decision is primarily driven by efforts to strengthen market fundamentals and respond to external factors, rather than concerns about member overproduction.

Bank analysts expect OPEC+ to begin phasing out its additional voluntary production cuts by October 2025. Meanwhile, experts anticipate US oil output growth to decline by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025, with a further 150,000 bpd reduction in 2026.