24 April 2025 | Other

Bailey warns of risks to UK economy due to global trade tensions

Bailey warns of risks to UK economy due to global trade tensions

According to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, trade tensions caused by US actions will damage the UK economy, despite the relatively small tariff burden for the island nation. 

Confirming his statements, a recently released indicator of UK private sector business activity showed a sharp drop due to global duties imposed by US President Donald Trump.

As Bailey emphasized, the reason for the blow to the UK economy will not be the trade relations between the country and the US per se, but the overall global trade environment. The United Kingdom, Bailey noted, is an open economy and is vulnerable to fragmentation of the global market.

The Bank of England is currently working on its GDP growth and inflation forecasts, which will be considered when the regulator makes its interest rate decision in May. Megan Greene, one of the regulator's nine officials authorized to vote on borrowing costs, stated this week that US tariffs are likely to have a disinflationary impact on Britain's economy. Markets expect the Bank of England to cut the rate by a quarter point on May 8 to 4.25%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Elena Berseneva MarketCheese
Period: 26.07.2026 Expectation: 1600 pips
Buying AUDCAD from support level
26 June 2026 48
Period: 03.07.2026 Expectation: 1310 pips
GBPUSD is still poised for further downside
26 June 2026 30
Brent sell
Period: 03.07.2026 Expectation: 500 pips
Higher supply and weaker demand is likely to push Brent into red zone by weekend
26 June 2026 20
Period: 26.07.2026 Expectation: 3100 pips
Invest in USDCAD up to 1.45000
26 June 2026 27
Period: 02.07.2026 Expectation: 19500 pips
Selling ETHUSD with $1,585 in view following short-lived recovery
25 June 2026 41
Period: 31.07.2026 Expectation: 220 pips
Buying AUDCAD up to 0.9837
25 June 2026 25
Go to forecasts