The Financial Times (FT) reports that Chinese oil traders are betting on cheap crude, disregarding the long-term risks of a trade confrontation with the United States.
According to the analytics provider Kpler, China's oil imports reached a record 11 million barrels per day in March and April — the highest in 18 months.
Active purchases began with Iranian oil due to the threat of new restrictive measures. These buys quickly escalated into the widespread replenishment of strategic reserves. A combination of tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and increased production in OPEC+ countries caused prices to plummet to a four-year low, providing China with the opportunity to buy cheaper crude.
Analysts at UBS and Morgan Stanley note that China traditionally uses periods of low prices to build up oil inventories, despite the threat of slowing consumption in the second half of the year.
Restrictions against Shandong refineries have already reduced crude imports from Iran from a record 1.8 million to 1.2 million barrels per day. Still, demand for supplies from Iran will remain resilient due to competitive costs, the FT concludes.