Founder of Point72 Asset Management sees 45% chance of US recession

Speaking at the Sohn conference in New York, the founder of hedge fund Point72 Asset Management Steve Cohen shared his outlook on the American economy. He expects a sharp slowdown in the country's GDP growth in the coming years. The risk of a recession he estimates at about 45%.

Cohen sees Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policy, his disagreement with the Federal Reserve's (Fed) over monetary policy decisions, and highly volatile US stock prices as huge challenges for the US economy. In 2026, its growth rate may slow down to 1.5%, the Point72 founder suggests. This outcome he considers manageable, but far from ideal, Bloomberg reports.

Despite pressure from Trump, Cohen believes the Fed is unlikely to give up its plan to keep interest rates unchanged. US officials clearly expect inflation to rise in response to the new President's import tariffs.